Our Thoughts

Dublin’s warehouse supply crunch is underway. Niall Gaffney, speaks to PERE

With demand far outstripping supply, a structural shortage of logistics accommodation is fuelling rental growth well above the European average.
Niall Gaffney Niall Gaffney
3 February 2026 8 mins read
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Ireland’s logistics market is at a turning point. A shortage of large-scale, institutional-grade distribution facilities has created opportunities for developers to deliver high-quality, sustainable buildings that address operational needs as well as employee amenities and occupiers’ ESG goals. Dublin is emerging as a strategic logistics location poised for strong growth in the coming years.

Q What factors are currently driving demand for logistics space across Ireland?

It is a combination of several structural changes in the market and cyclical opportunities. The structural changes are particularly around demographics that are unique to Ireland: a very young population that is growing at a rate that is well ahead of our European peer groups. This demographic profile underpins rapid e-commerce growth, which started from a low pre-covid base and is projected to continue outpacing the European average. Ireland also ranks second-highest in Europe for cross-border retail e-commerce, according to our research, with more than 65 percent of all online purchases coming from outside the jurisdiction. At the same time, trade patterns post-Brexit have seen an exponential increase in the direct importation of goods from mainland Europe and the rest of the world to Ireland. For decades, the main source of goods was through the UK landbridge, so modern logistics warehousing developed slowly or inefficiently here, as there was little demand at scale. Most goods were delivered straight off the lorry from the UK, almost in a ‘just-in-time’ delivery pattern. That has fundamentally changed. Many companies have reduced their reliance on the UK landbridge, holding more inventory locally or using alternative freight routes. The use of the UK landbridge has declined by about 20 percent in the last decade, while movement of goods via European routes has doubled in that same period.

For ‘just-in-case’ deliveries around the security of food, medicine and essentials, the lack of resilience within the supply chain was exposed during the pandemic, encouraging many occupiers to increase in-country inventory. This was highlighted again when Holyhead Port in Wales was damaged at the end of 2024, causing huge supply chain disruption. As a result, we expect this trend of increasing inventory to become even more pronounced. In addition, as part of the Irish Government’s new National Development Plan, the government plans to deliver 300,000 new houses in Ireland by 2030. That will drive significant demand on the e-commerce side. Furthermore, many materials used in building these houses will be imported through ports and airports, creating a double impact. Considering the accelerated pace of housing delivery, household creation and the concentration of the growing population in the Greater Dublin Area, demand for modern logistics facilities close to the capital is growing exponentially.

Q What factors are contributing to Dublin’s dominance amid Ireland’s logistics markets?

Ireland is small enough that you can service the entire country from one hub in Dublin. The city’s C-ring motorway (the M50) provides access to the Dublin region, which is home to 40 percent of Ireland’s population. The M50 connects to a series of motorways linking Ireland’s other major cities, allowing the whole country to be serviced within a day. As a result, industrial activity is concentrated in Dublin.

In the last couple of years, north Dublin has become particularly popular due to access to Dublin Airport, the M1 motorway, which connects Dublin and Belfast – and which has seen increased traffic since Brexit – and Dublin Port via the Dublin Port Tunnel. This creates a confluence of infrastructure in north Dublin. It is now the preferred location where rental premiums are being achieved, as it sits at the pinnacle of this infrastructure.

Q Despite strong demand, why are large-scale logistics parks still uncommon in Ireland and across Europe?

The logistics market is typically cost-conscious. Users of logistics parks are very much linked to distribution contracts with tight margins. The question is whether occupiers will pay premium rent for sustainable buildings or for a greater level of amenities around the estate. Service charges for parks with these amenities are naturally higher and, historically, there has been resistance from customers to pay higher rents and charges for such facilities. However, we are seeing a shift now.

Occupiers know they need to attract and retain staff, especially in Ireland, which has effectively been at full employment for the last couple of years. They also have corporate social responsibility requirements to their shareholders. Despite some pushback from North American policy, major occupiers, particularly those tied into EU taxonomy, are now willing and obliged to improve their CSR position. This shift shows that while logistics remains a cost-conscious industry, occupiers are taking the opportunity to move from inferior buildings into best-in-class facilities. That demand is here to stay.

Q What does the logistics development pipeline in Ireland look like right now?

The supply pipeline for modern, largescale units is still very constrained with the vacancy rate of modern accommodation less than 2 per cent in Dublin.

Dublin is likely to remain undersupplied over the next three to five years, making the prospects for rental growth obvious

We estimate there to be about 5.5 million square feet of demand for modern stock in Dublin at present, with typical annual take-up around 2.6 million square feet, so the market is falling well short. Meanwhile, we only have about 1.5 million square feet due for delivery next year. This has created a significant gap in quality, large-scale warehousing, which is expected to drive strong rental growth, particularly for better-quality warehousing. While our major European peer cities are expected to generate rental growth of approximately 2.3 per cent per annum over the next five years, Dublin is expected to generate prime rental growth of around 3.5 percent per annum by comparison, according to forecast data from Green Street Advisors. This spread of about 100 basis points, based on conservative forecasts, underscores a structural undersupply driven by a combination of demographic and trade patterns. That undersupply is likely to lead to a bulge in rental growth and an inward movement of major global distributors.

Ireland exports a lot of goods through major multinationals, into Europe and worldwide, and its position as a hub between North America and the rest of the world remains important. There is significant growth here, and a lot of catching up to do with Europe in terms of logistics building quality.

Q Is occupier demand shifting toward higher quality, ESG-led logistics space?

The demand from major logistics operators and corporates for higher quality accommodation is a global trend we are indeed seeing in Dublin. We are responding by aiming to deliver around 2.5 million square feet of superior-quality facilities at Nexus Logistics Park, having previously developed Quantum Logistics Park. These buildings, both located in north Dublin, feature high ESG credentials, and we are achieving a rental premium of about 10 percent above a typical warehouse unit, reflecting the intrinsic value of the amenities and sustainable features.

Two years ago, we built Maersk’s first net-zero warehouse in its global portfolio in Dublin, using a cross laminated timber structure, highlighting both the appeal of Ireland to global supply-chain leaders as well as the growing demand for sustainable buildings. Demand is proven. Quantum Logistics Park is fully let, and at Nexus Logistics Park we have two units under construction with a pre-let close on the first one. To secure pre-lets in what was a tough market in 2025 is testament to the fact that tenants want high-quality, amenity rich space and are willing to pay higher rents to fulfil sustainability requirements.

Tenants want high-quality, amenity rich space and are willing to pay higher rents to fulfil sustainability requirements.

Q What about investor demand for Irish logistics assets?

New logistics funds are emerging. We launched an Article 9 classified fund, the IPUT Nexus Logistics Fund, in 2025, fully seeding it and completing fundraising by Q1 2025. We raised over €190 million to develop the first phase of Nexus Logistics Park, specifically targeting sustainable investment returns. That attracted capital from the sovereign wealth fund Ireland Strategic Investment Fund and a major Dutch insurance company, showcasing support for the strategy.

We have also seen major European investors looking at logistics in Dublin. We recently completed a transaction of more than €61 million, selling a portfolio to one of the biggest UK developers and investors in logistics. It was competitively bid, with three or four parties actively pursuing the portfolio, which sold for more than the guide price. This deal signals renewed international investor interest in Dublin’s logistics sector. Dublin is likely to remain undersupplied over the next three to five years, making the prospects for rental growth obvious. Availability of product has hindered transactional activity in recent years, but in the coming months we could see around €800 million in logistics transactions in the Irish market, including the sale of a €500 million portfolio which is reportedly in exclusivity to Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC, so Irish logistics assets are definitely on the radar for many investors.